London Southend Airport & Environs Joint Area Action Plan Issues & Options Paper

Ended on the 8 August 2008
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5 Potential JAAP Scenarios

(12) 5.1 Introduction

This section of the Issues & Options paper considers the potential spatial scenarios for the JAAP area. Four potential scenarios are presented for consultation. Their purpose is to indicate how, depending on the response to the issues and options, the Vision for the JAAP may translate into a preferred strategy for the future. Clearly, the decisions in respect of the growth of the airport and role of the area in providing future employment will be critical in determining the potential scale of development and enhancement to the area (environmental and transport) that will be required.

Each scenario is indicative and presented to encourage debate and discussion. The consultation and views on these scenarios will be used to inform the development of a preferred strategy for the JAAP. This preferred strategy could emerge as a hybrid of the scenarios presented.

The scenarios presented are as follows:

  • Scenario 1: Low Growth (do minimum)
  • Scenario 2 (a): Medium Growth
  • Scenario 2 (b): Medium Growth - ‘Aviation Cluster’
  • Scenario 3: High Growth

Each scenario is outlined through an overview statement of the vision for the area; a spatial plan of the scenario; specific details of what each scenario includes in respect of development and improvement; and an assessment of the impact/ implications of each scenario (positive and negative).

Figure 5.1 - Scenario 1 - Low Growth

Figure 5.1

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey® material by Halcrow on behalf of Rochford District Council of Council Offices South Street Rochford SS4 1BW with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, ©Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Licence Number: 1000018109, 2007.

Key

(27) 5.2 Scenario 1: Low Growth (do minimum)

An obvious scenario for the JAAP would be to maintain the current status quo in the area in respect of the encouragement of employment and the role of the airport. With regards to the latter, this scenario would see the current airport model continuing and would see limited investment in the airport (any investment would focus on maintenance of existing facilities). The airport would incrementally grow its MRO base within the constraints of its existing operation, primarily focused on the northern maintenance zone. Passenger traffic would remain a marginal function for the airport. No investment in the airport terminal or transport infrastructure would be made to support the role of the airport.

Likewise, wider employment growth in this scenario is constrained to being accommodated within the existing designated employment areas and particularly improvement/ intensification to Aviation Way Business Park. Through intensification there would be the potential to accommodate up to a further 750 jobs in up to 15,000 sq.m. of new office/ light industrial floorspace. However, this restricted level of development is likely to constrain the needs of current businesses looking to expand their operations in the area (26% of whom felt current premises only partially meet their future needs) and fail to meet the policy aspirations set for the JAAP in terms of its employment role.

In land use terms, no new employment allocations would be committed and development would be concentrated within existing developed areas. Transport improvements required to the area would be minimal, relating to improvements to the roundabout at the entrance to Aviation Way Business Park to support employment growth in that area.

(8) 5.2.1 Details

The key features shaping this scenario, and what it means in practical terms is presented in more detail below.

Scenario 1 - Low Growth
Issue 1: Future role of London Southend Airport
Airport model and infrastructure The future growth of the airport would be based on the current airport model of limited investment and incremental growth in the MRO business. Given the constraints of current facilities (including the runway length) even the MRO opportunities would potentially be limited.

Runway - The existing runway (06/24) is approximately 1,610 metres long with a Runway End Safety Area (RESA) at the southern end across Eastwoodbury Lane. Existing RESA’s in place are 90m. in length at the north east end and 240m. at the south west end.

MRO - Both the southern maintenance zone and northern maintenance zone have scope for some improvement and development within the existing airport boundary. Under-utilised sites within the airport boundary would be developed under this scenario.

Hotel - Planning permission has been granted for a hotel adjacent to the current airport terminal. While it is assumed this will proceed it could become vulnerable if future expansion of the passenger market at the airport is not realised.

No further airport related infrastructure envisaged - The current passenger terminal will be maintained to meet what will be a modest increase in passenger flows in future years.

Boundary - No changes to the airport boundary proposed.
Direct airport employment Direct employment supported by the airport would grow modestly from its existing base. Direct employment was estimated at 930 in 2005, comprising 120 air based jobs and 810 MRO based jobs. These generate around £22.3 million direct income to the sub-region. Indirect and induced employment related to the airport was 120 jobs.
Aircraft and passenger forecasts Current passenger levels (2006) were estimated by the airport operating company at around 46,000. This has grown from 3,650 terminal passengers in 2004. Aircraft movements in 2004 were 48,697.
Issue 2: Future employment role
Employment land Growth of employment in the area would be accommodated through the intensification of existing employment areas, with no new allocations committed in the area. Existing employment land in the JAAP comprises up to 51ha. of business parks and industrial estates and while there are opportunities for development across the JAAP, the greatest potential for redevelopment and intensification is on Aviation Way where land is currently underused. On the assumption that up to 20% of the site might be used more intensively it is estimated that an additional 15,000 sq.m. of floorspace could be provided accommodating an additional 750 jobs
Issue 3: Environmental and amenity enhancement
Green Belt No change to the existing Green Belt is proposed. Therefore, approximately 50% of the airport would remain within the designated Metropolitan Green Belt.
Environmental Issues Flood Risk - medium risk area currently forms part of Aviation Way Business Park.

The airport drainage system discharges via interceptors into Eastwood Brook and Prittlewell Brook. Pollution incidences in 1986 and 1995 involving aviation fuel were resolved satisfactorily. The level of threat likely to remain as is.

Noise levels within the JAAP area would remain largely around current levels. Marginal increases in aircraft movements could lead to an incremental increase in associated noise, although improved technology would mitigate this. Noise from road traffic will increase with more intense employment land use.
Enhancement opportunities Under a do minimum scenario no environmental enhancements would be made to the JAAP area.
Issue 4: Transport and movement improvements
Eastwoodbury Lane No changes would be necessary to the functioning of Eastwoodbury Lane. The route is protected by traffic lights and an automatic barrier which are activated when certain aircraft take off, causing minor delays in overall journey times. The extent of closure will increase marginally as aircraft movements increase over time.
Improvements Infrastructure improvement in accordance with LTP2 -the current network is operating at near capacity and investment in infrastructure will be required regardless of any scenario.

Identified improvements include improved access for the Brickworks' site off Cherry Orchard Way and likely upgrade works in order to increase its capacity, especially at the western arm of Eastwoodbury Lane.

(3) 5.2.2 Scenario Assessment

Assessment of Strategic Fit
Objective
Creation of sustainable and high value employment and other land uses Tick Limited opportunity to create high value employment and other uses because development is constrained to existing developed areas. The area is unlikely to be transformed to provide a new offer and attract significant developer activity.
Maximising the economic benefits of a thriving airport and related activity Tick This objective would not be met by this scenario as the airport asset would essentially continue in its current form and will subsequently not operate as the economic driver required for the area.
Ensuring appropriate improvements in sustainable transport Tick With limited development the necessary improvements to transport infrastructure will be marginal, but sustainability enhanced.
Ensuring a high quality environment for residents TickTick With limited new development and slow incremental growth at the airport, existing green spaces are preserved and enhanced. However, the incentive to provide additional enhancements would be low given little change in the area in terms of activity and development.
Maximum return on public investment through attracting inward investment Tick Although public investment will be limited the returns will be low because there will be no real change in the character of the area.
Efficient use of existing employment land resources TickTick Intensification of uses on existing areas will result in the more efficient use of current land allocations. However, land within the airport boundary will remain under utilised.

Key Tick Low strategic fit TickTick Medium strategic fit TickTickTick High strategic fit

Overall the strategic fit of this scenario with the JAAP objectives would be poor. Given little change will be seen in the area there would be no or low impact on most of the objectives. Without new employment land allocations or substantial investment or growth at the airport, the area would effectively stagnate in employment terms. The attraction of new high value employment would not occur and the airport would fail to realise its potential as a sub-regional asset. In essence the area would suffer from a lack of momentum and would fail to attract public investment.

Benefits and disbenefits
Economic Environmental
Tick Potential employment growth within existing sectors. Additional jobs capacity of around 750 jobs in 15,000 sq.m. of new floorspace Tick Opportunities for environmental enhancement on existing open areas
Cross Investor interest likely to be diminished as opportunities are infill rather than strategic Tick Existing habitats protected
Cross Airport is not seen as a major driver for the sub-region Cross Minor impacts associated with increased airport activity given the slow incremental growth
Cross Economic aspirations for the sub-region unlikely to be achieved Cross Increased traffic associated with new employment would require some mitigation in terms of noise, vibration and air quality

Key Tick Benefit Cross Disbenefit

Scenario 1 would see little additional development or activity in the area and therefore there will be limited benefits or disbenefits generated. In terms of economic outcomes the area would not contribute in an effective way towards the employment growth aspirations of Southend and Rochford. Given that achieving the growth targets is predicated on the airport operating at a regional level the main conclusion is that this scenario could undermine wider sub-regional growth. The only advantage is that some employment growth can occur through intensification of existing employment land.

The environmental advantages result by default in that existing environmental quality and habitats would be maintained because of a lack of new activity. However, while open and amenity space is preserved there would be little incentive to enhance it because the area would generally lack a momentum in improving the area. The main disadvantage would be increased traffic impacts associated by more intensely used employment land.

Figure 5.2 - Scenario 2(a) - Medium Growth

Figure 5.2

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey® material by Halcrow on behalf of Rochford District Council of Council Offices South Street Rochford SS4 1BW with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, ©Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Licence Number: 1000018109, 2007.

Key

(29) 5.3 Scenario 2(a): Medium Growth

The JAAP area is already characterised by a focus towards the provision of employment for the Southend and Rochford economies. Key concentrations of employment include the airport itself; Aviation Way Business Park; Laurence Industrial Park; and the retail park to the east of the airport.

Scenario 2(a) envisages a continuation of this role through the intensification and protection of existing employment areas, supported by the provision of a new employment allocation to the north of Aviation Way (part of Site iia) and predicated on its suitability as a marketable employment location. With the envisaged growth in employment focused towards office and light industrial uses, the new allocation provides the opportunity for development of a new business park facility that is currently under provided in the wider sub-region. To facilitate this provision new transport infrastructure is envisaged to improve accessibility to employment areas. These improvements are likely to include improvement to the existing roundabout at the entrance to Aviation Way; new access into Aviation Way off Cherry Orchard Way and improved capacity to the middle section of Cherry Orchard Way itself.

The future role of the airport under this scenario will be for it to continue in its current form. This would mean limited investment in the airport, with any investment focused towards maintenance of existing facilities. The airport would incrementally grow its MRO base within the constraints of its existing operation, primarily in the northern maintenance zone. Passenger traffic would remain a marginal function for the business.

In terms of new development, this would include limited residential infill (mixed tenure) and improvement to the Brickworks' site (Site i) and a small business park development to the north of Aviation Way (part of Site (iia). Environmental enhancement would include Site (v) and Site (ix) but also enhancement to Sites (ii) and (iii) to link the Country Park across into the area.

(5) 5.3.1 Details

The key features shaping this scenario, and what it means in practical terms is presented in more detail below.

Scenario 2 - Medium Growth
Issue 1: Future role of London Southend Airport
Airport model and infrastructure The future growth of the airport would be based on the current airport model of limited investment and incremental growth in the MRO business. Given the constraints of current facilities (including the runway length) even the MRO opportunities would potentially be limited.

Runway - The existing runway (06/24) is approximately 1,610 metres long with a Runway End Safety Area (RESA) at the southern end across Eastwoodbury Lane. Existing RESA’s in place are 90m. in length at the north east end and 240m. at the south west end.

MRO - Both the southern maintenance zone and northern maintenance zone have scope for some improvement and development within the existing airport boundary. Under-utilised sites within the airport boundary would be developed under this scenario.

Hotel - Planning permission has been granted for a hotel adjacent to the current airport terminal. While it is assumed this will proceed it could become vulnerable if future expansion of the passenger market at the airport is not realised.

No further airport related infrastructure envisaged - The current passenger terminal will be maintained to meet what will be a modest increase in passenger flows in future years.

Boundary - No changes to the airport boundary proposed.
Direct airport employment Direct employment supported by the airport would grow modestly from its existing base. Direct employment was estimated at 930 in 2005, comprising 120 air based jobs and 810 MRO based jobs. These generate around £22.3 million direct income to the sub-region. Indirect and induced employment related to the airport was 120 jobs.
Aircraft and passenger forecasts Current passenger levels (2006) were estimated by the airport operating company at around 46,000. This has grown from 3,650 terminal passengers in 2004. Aircraft movements in 2004 were 48,697.
Issue 2: Future employment role
Employment Land The JAAP would take a stronger role in providing accommodation to meet future employment land needs based on RSS targets. Analysis suggests that 47% of the additional 16,000 jobs will be associated with B-class sectors and that this could translate into a change in land demand of about 30ha. Growth in B-class employment will principally be B1 in character, associated with business park/office accommodation and flexible light industrial uses.

The JAAP would increase its provision of employment land to include the site directly to the north of Aviation Way. Up to seven ha. could be released for business park style development, providing the capacity for up to 49,000 sq.m. of office and light industrial floorspace to accommodate up to 2,500 new jobs in the area. This new allocation would take the form of a new business park aimed at delivering a new portfolio of accommodation and opportunity that is currently lacking in the area. Together with the intensification of Aviation Way, this would mean that up to 64,000 sq.m. of new floorspace and 3,200 new jobs could be accommodated in the area.
Issue 3: Environmental and amenity enhancement
Green Belt No change to the existing Green Belt is proposed. Therefore, approximately 50% of the airport would remain within the designated Metropolitan Green Belt.
Environmental Issues Flood Risk - medium risk area currently forms part of Aviation Way Business Park.

The airport drainage system would continue to discharge via interceptors into Eastwood Brook and Prittlewell Brook. The level of pollution incidences may increase due to expansion of activity but this may be mitigated by appropriate measures.

Noise levels within the JAAP area would remain largely around current levels. Marginal increases in aircraft movements could lead to an incremental increase in associated noise, although improved technology would mitigate this. Noise from road traffic would increase with more intense employment land use.
Enhancement opportunities Environmental and amenity enhancements proposed include improvement of arable land south of Eastwoodbury Lane; establishment of local amenity space to the east of railway line; and extending the country park and amenity space in the habitat areas and ponds in the northern section of the JAAP.
Issue 4: Transport and movement improvements
Eastwoodbury Lane No changes would be necessary to the functioning of Eastwoodbury Lane. The route is protected by traffic lights and an automatic barrier which are activated when certain aircraft take off, causing minor delays in overall journey times. The extent of closure would increase marginally as aircraft movements increase over time.
Improvements Infrastructure improvement in accordance with LTP2 but additional infrastructure investment would be required to cope with increased growth. Access to the new employment area would be via a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way. This would have two lanes in and out (similar to the existing roundabout at Cherry Orchard Way - Eastwoodbury Lane). Improved access into Aviation Way would be via the upgraded Aviation Way – Eastwoodbury Lane mini roundabout and a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way.

Cherry Orchard Way would likely need to be upgraded to two lanes in each direction (similar to the existing stretch between the three arm roundabout serving the industrial estate and Eastwoodbury Lane).

(5) 5.3.2 Scenario Assessment

Assessment of Strategic Fit
Objective
Creation of sustainable and high value employment and other land uses TickTick New employment land allocations provide the capacity to create a new business park and redevelop significant areas of Aviation Way. Up to 64,000 sq.m. of new employment space and 3,200 additional jobs could be accommodated in the area in key sectors.
Maximising the economic benefits of a thriving airport and related activity Tick This objective would not be met by this scenario as the airport asset would essentially continue in its current form.
Ensuring appropriate improvements in sustainable transport TickTick Improvements to the highway network would be needed to accommodate the new development and employment in the area, alongside public transport initiatives to encourage modal shift.
Ensuring a high quality environment for residents TickTickTick A high quality environment would be maintained through improvement to amenity areas. Only a limited area would be released for development (Brickworks' site and employment area north of Aviation Way). In addition limited airport growth would result in marginal impacts.
Maximum return on public investment through attracting inward investment TickTick There would be some returns on public investment in sites and infrastructure through the creation of new employment opportunities.
Efficient use of existing employment land resources TickTick Intensification of uses on existing areas would result in the more efficient use of current land allocations. Land will remain under utilised within the airport boundary.

Key Tick Low strategic fit TickTick Medium strategic fit TickTickTick High strategic fit

Scenario 2(a) provides an improved fit with the strategic objectives envisaged for the JAAP. With new employment allocations comes the opportunity to provide new floorspace offer for the sub-region and attract new investment and high value jobs. To facilitate this development improvements will be needed to the transport infrastructure and amenity areas to ensure that a sustainable approach to the future is delivered. However, given the potential returns in terms of jobs, this public investment is likely to occur. The area where this scenario does not meet strategic objectives is in delivering a thriving airport that provides a boost to the sub-region. Indeed, without this the area would potentially find it more difficult to attract investment and develop the floorspace required.

Benefits and disbenefits
Economic Environmental
Tick Potential employment growth of up to 3,200 jobs in existing and new sectors, accommodated in up to 64,000 sq.m. of new floorspace. This provision will primarily be in the form of a new business park to the north of Aviation Way. Tick New opportunities for environmental enhancement on existing open areas, including visual amenity around the Brickworks' site, and recreational opportunity in the area. Increased potential for developer contribution to environmental mitigation and enhancement.
Tick New employment land allocation provide new market opportunities to attract investor interest and diversify the offer of the area. Limited new development means that existing habitats are largely protected.
Tick The area starts to contribute in a strategic way to the employment objectives of the subregion, providing space for 3,200 jobs out of the 16,000 required for the area. Cross Minor impacts associated with increased airport activity given the slow incremental growth.
Cross The airport is not a major driver for the economy, placing a greater reliance on existing sectors which have struggled in the past. Cross Potential landscape and habitat impact associated with increased employment and residential development.
Cross Economic aspirations for the sub-region will be harder to achieve and the new employment space will be starved of a source of potential demand from the aviation sector. Cross New land uses would impact on noise, vibration and air quality (main source being road traffic).

Key Tick Benefit Cross Disbenefit

With increased development and activity, JAAP Scenario 2(a) delivers increased economic benefit to the area, principally through encouraging an additional 3,200 jobs. An important aspect of this scenario is that the new employment land allocation provides space for a new product to be created for the area that would help to transform its overall attractiveness to market investors and potential inward investment companies. No airport expansion means that the area would lack a key economic driver and that achieving aspirational employment growth would be more challenging. The success of the JAAP would depend on wider activities to help attract new sectors and businesses to the area.

There would be an increase in economic disbenefit associated with increased development and economic activity. In terms of development, this would be constrained to relatively small and less environmentally sensitive areas. This would mean existing habitats are largely protected and landscape/habitat impacts are minimised. The main impact would result from the level of employment activity and associated traffic which would need to be carefully managed. On the positive side, the fact that the area is changing will provide a public focus to maintain environmental quality and would help support public funding, which may not otherwise have been attracted. This could lead to the potential enhancement to key areas such as the Country Park.

Figure 5.3 - Scenario 2(b) - Medium Growth -‘Aviation Cluster’

Figure 5.3

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey® material by Halcrow on behalf of Rochford District Council of Council Offices South Street Rochford SS4 1BW with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, ©Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Licence Number: 1000018109, 2007.

Key

(27) 5.4 Scenario 2(b): Medium Growth – Aviation Cluster

Scenario 2(b) envisages London Southend Airport becoming a driver of the sub-regional economy and specifically shaping the future focus of the JAAP. The aim would be to support the growth and investment in the airport to enable it to develop a passenger based market of up to 2 million passengers. The model for growth is based around the published master plan which maintains the existing runway but provides new infrastructure (railway, hotel, and terminal) to develop and sell the asset to potential MRO, FBO and aviation companies. Passenger numbers would grow to 2 mppa by 2030 generated by the increased catchment provided by the railway connection to London. Growth in the MRO operation would see the reconfiguration and extension of the southern and northern maintenance areas, including an expansion to the airport boundary to include land adjacent to the northern maintenance area.

Supporting the growth of aviation-related employment within the airport boundary, a positive land use approach to areas adjacent to the airport would be adopted. The intensification and growth of employment in the vicinity of Aviation Way would be restricted to aviation businesses to help develop a coordinated and focused cluster.

The land use implications of this scenario fall within and adjacent to the existing airport boundary. Within the boundary, land would be used as efficiently as possible to accommodate operators and MRO companies. Given operational constraints, redevelopment is focused on the northern and southern maintenance zones, the existing terminal area, and the area currently occupied by the flying clubs to the east of the runways. Outside the airport boundary employment related development would be allowed to the north of Aviation Way (site iia) and to the west of the current airport ancillary area (site iii) – the latter incorporated within a revised boundary. Residential development would be used to improve the Brickworks' site and other areas of local amenity would be improved to maintain the overall environmental quality of the area for residents, businesses and visitors.

(9) 5.4.1 Details

The key features shaping this scenario, and what it means in practical terms is presented in more detail below.

Scenario 2(b) - Aviation Cluster
Issue 1: Future role of London Southend Airport
Airport model and infrastructure Under this scenario the airport would grow significantly and with a passenger focus to its activities. Although the runway would be constrained to its current length the improvements to airport facilities such as the control tower, railway station and new terminal would enhance the asset and potentially attract airline operators. The potential would be for the airport to grow to one mppa by 2012 and up to two mppa by 2030. There is a high level of risk associated with this option in that the economic reality is that passenger operators are increasingly operating larger and more efficient aircraft and would view the airport as a constraint to commercial operation. This then casts doubt on whether the investment in the infrastructure is viable to proceed.

MRO – Increased aircraft movements and the location of fixed operators at the airport will create additional opportunities for MRO businesses. To accommodate these improvements would be made to the northern maintenance zone (through better development of existing plots) and the development of a new MRO area to the north in a current Green Belt area. The land take required for this would be approximately 4.05ha. (10 acres).

New Terminal - Along the eastern boundary, the new terminal building would provide a handling capacity of about 0.65-0.7 mppa with the scope for future expansion to handle expected growth to 2 mppa (this has current planning approval). The approved terminal building will include a visitor centre. Extension of the terminal building would take in the sites currently occupied by the flying schools along the east boundary of the study area.
Airport model and infrastructure New Railway Station - The rail station will be developed along the eastern boundary. Approval from the Strategic Rail Authority would be required together with an access agreement with Network Rail and the train operator, National Express East Anglia.

Hotel - Planning permission has been granted for a hotel adjacent to the current airport terminal. Based on passenger growth at the airport this development is more likely to take place.

Control Tower - relocation to northern maintenance zone together with reconfiguration of southern maintenance zone This would require northern surface access route for the airport.

Boundary - Expanded to include small field adjoining the northern maintenance zone.
Direct airport employment Airport and MRO direct employment is expected to be 2,110 jobs comprising 910 air based and 1,200 MRO based jobs within the airport boundary by 2030. In terms of additionality, this represents an increase of 1,180 jobs directly associated with the functioning of the airport.
Aircraft and passenger forecasts The forecasts for passenger growth envisage up to one mppa reached by 2012 with continued growth to two mppa by 2030 (in accordance with the Aviation White Paper. Converting the two mppa to daily averages would suggest around 1,500 arriving and 1,500 departing passengers on a typical day.

The associated aircraft movements handled by the airport are up to 66,000 by 2015-21 and 85,500 movements by 2030. Included within these figures are anticipated air transport movements of 15,000 and 32,000 respectively. Again, daily flows on a typical day would include around 40 passenger flights, 2-3 MRO aircraft movements and 5-6 business flights. In total around three flights per hour.
Issue 2: Future employment role
Employment Land The focus of employment growth will be associated with the airport and the attraction of aviation-related sectors. The principal growth is envisaged to be in MRO activities that require runway access so better use of existing MRO land is planned along with the proposed expansion of the airport boundary to include a 4.05ha (10 acre) field adjacent to the northern maintenance zone.

Beyond this up to seven ha. could be released for business park style development, providing the capacity for up to 49,000 sq.m. of office and light industrial floorspace to accommodate up to 2,500 new aviation jobs in the area. This new allocation would take the form of a new business park aimed at delivering the airport cluster. Together with the intensification of Aviation Way, this would mean that up to 64,000 sq.m. of new floorspace and 3,200 new jobs could be accommodated in the area.

Opportunities for non-aviation businesses would be limited and encouraged to locate elsewhere in the borough.
Issue 3: Environmental and amenity enhancement
Green Belt The Green Belt boundary would be revised to reflect development land requirements for the period of the JAAP. This would include taking the Green Belt around the airport boundary and any new land allocations justified through the future role of the area. By drawing the Green Belt tight to new allocations no further scope for development would be envisaged in the JAAP area.
Environmental Issues Additional Flood Risk area will be included in the proposed northern expansion into the Green Belt.

The airport drainage system would continue to discharge via interceptors into Eastwood Brook and Prittlewell Brook. The level of pollution incidences may increase due to expansion of activity but this may be mitigated by appropriate measures. Possibility of incorporating Eastwood Brook into future development together with appropriate mitigation measures in place.

Noise - growth in air traffic, increased employment, and the new railway station would all negatively impact upon noise levels in the JAAP area. The greatest impact would be an increase in aircraft noise and although the airport currently has no limits on its operation (it operates in line with conditions set out in the UK Aeronautical Package) controls may need to be put in place through negotiation with the operator and planning conditions on new infrastructure. Road traffic noise will increase with employment growth and to mitigate this modal shift will need to be encouraged. The increase in rail noise would be localised to the new station area and associated with stopping existing train numbers.
Enhancement opportunities Environmental and amenity enhances proposed include improvement of arable land south of Eastwoodbury Lane; recreation of local amenity space to the east of the railway line; and extending the country park and amenity space in the habitat areas and ponds in the northern section of the JAAP.
Issue 4: Transport and movement improvements
Eastwoodbury Lane The increase in aircraft movements would mean that Eastwoodbury Lane would become increasingly constrained as a west to east access route through the JAAP area. At key times during the day it is envisaged that the route would be closed for increasingly significant periods of time. Therefore, at the end of the plan period an alternative route is likely to be required. A possible route for the alignment of this would be adjacent to the existing development to the south of the current southern RESA.
Improvements Infrastructure improvement in accordance with LTP2 but additional infrastructure investment would be required to cope with increased growth. Access to the new employment area would be via a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way. This would have two lanes in and out (similar to the existing roundabout at Cherry Orchard Way - Eastwoodbury Lane). Improved access into Aviation Way would be via the upgraded Aviation Way – Eastwoodbury Lane mini roundabout and a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way. Cherry Orchard Way would likely need to be upgraded to two lanes in each direction (similar to the existing stretch between the three-arm roundabout serving the industrial estate and Eastwoodbury Lane).

(8) 5.4.2 Scenario Assessment

Assessment of Strategic Fit
Objective
Creation of sustainable and high value employment and other land uses TickTick New employment associated with the expansion of the airport and encouraging the clustering of Aviation businesses would deliver sustainable and high value employment opportunities. Up to 64,000 sq.m. of new employment space and 3,200 additional jobs could be accommodated in the aviation sector.
Maximising the economic benefits of a thriving airport and related activity TickTick The airport would be developed and invested in to utilise its potential based on the current runway infrastructure. New facilities including a new railway station, new terminal facilities, relocated control tower and improvements to maintenance areas. Additional direct employment at the airport would amount to 1,180 jobs.
Ensuring appropriate improvements in sustainable transport accessibility and facilities TickTickTick Significant improvements to transport network proposed including dualling the remainder of Cherry Orchard Way, replacement access for Eastwoodbury Lane, new railway station and northern access for the airport and Aviation Way.
Ensuring a high quality environment for residents TickTick A high quality of environment would be maintained, with enhancement to amenity areas and management of the green wedge between the airport and development to the north. Increased aircraft passengers and movements, coupled with increased employment will create negative impacts that will need to be managed and mitigated.
Maximum return on public investment through attracting inward investment TickTick Returns on public investment would increase in this scenario, supporting as it does the expansion of the airport and associated growth in the aviation cluster.
Efficient use of existing employment land resources TickTickTick Efficient land use will occur throughout the JAAP. This will include maximising the potential opportunities within the airport boundary and the efficient use and allocation outside the airport.

Key Tick Low strategic fit TickTick Medium strategic fit TickTickTick High strategic fit

Scenario 2(b) overall demonstrates a strong strategic fit with the objectives of the JAAP. The refocusing of the area towards an aviation cluster provides a new character for the economic activity in the area, driven by the potential growth of the airport. Compared to the previous scenario, 2(b) has greater fit in terms of maximising the benefits of the airport; delivers more sustainable transport solutions with the new railway station complementing other initiatives; and makes more efficient use of existing employment land resource by using more land within the airport boundary. Given the growth of the airport, environmental impacts become more prevalent in this scenario because increased aircraft movements are seen alongside increased traffic associated with employees. Additional public investment would be required to ensure the high quality environment is sustained or enhanced.

Benefits and disbenefits
Economic Environmental
Tick New and additional high value direct employment associated with the growth of the airport. Total direct employment up to 2,110 jobs, an additionality of 1,180 jobs over current levels. Tick Visual amenity to the Brickworks' site improved as are recreational and amenity assets in the area. In addition the flying clubs could be improved in new accommodation.
Tick Potential capacity for an additional 64,000 sq.m. housing up to 3,200 jobs in wider employment land allocations, focused towards aviation-related sectors. Tick New railway station would support modal shift of airport users, reducing impact of increased passenger numbers.
Tick Clearly defined employment location policy given direction and guidance on growth of the aviation cluster. Tick Increased potential for developer contribution/ public sector contribution to environmental mitigation and enhancement.
Cross JAAP provides limited support to the wider growth of employment in the sub-region, helping to meet growth targets. Cross Negative noise, vibration and air quality impacts associated with the increased aircraft movements and number of passengers using the airport.
Cross Uncertainty over the capacity of the aviation cluster to grow significantly in this location given the constraint in terms of size of aircraft serviced in the area, and the competition from other locations (UK and overseas). Cross An increasing amount of development increases the impact on habitat, landscape character and architectural features.

Key Tick Benefit Cross Disbenefit

There are strong economic benefits associated with this scenario, generated by the growth of the airport and its role as a regional economic driver. In total, the approach could create the potential for up to 4,400 new jobs on and outside the airport. While these benefits are large, there is caution over the level of risk associated with this scenario, given that the commercial reality is operators are less likely to view the airport as an attractive location. By concentrating the whole strategy of the JAAP on airport growth potentially risks ‘too many eggs in one basket’, particularly given the volatility in aviation markets at times.

In terms of the environmental impact, the disbenefits are increased under this scenario with the increased aircraft movements and associated noise, vibration and air quality impacts. These would need to be carefully managed and mitigated in order to sustain current levels of quality. However, funding for improvements and enhancements are likely to be more forthcoming from the public or private sectors because the value gained from developing the area will be significant.

(50) 5.5 Scenario 3: High Growth

Scenario 3 presents a high growth scenario that would see the JAAP taking a positive stance to both the role of the airport and the wider need for employment land in the two local authority areas. The airport model is based around an extended runway that will facilitate larger aircraft and increase the potential attraction of aviation companies (passenger and MRO), and associated infrastructure development. The runway would be lengthened to the south to provide a strip of 1,799 metres, extended across Eastwoodbury Lane into the current southern RESA. While the growth in terms of passenger numbers would remain capped at 2 mppa, the prospect of reaching this maximum capacity is greatly enhanced by the improved attractiveness of the airport asset. Under this scenario the airport would realistically represent an economic asset and driver for the sub-regional economy.

The land use implications of this scenario fall within and adjacent to the existing airport boundary. Within the boundary, land will be used as efficiently as possible to accommodate operators and MRO companies. Given operational constraints, redevelopment is focused on the northern and southern maintenance zones, the existing terminal area, and the area currently occupied by the flying clubs to the east of the runways. Outside the airport boundary employment related development will be allowed to the north of Aviation Way on sites ii(a) and site ii(d) – the rugby club site, and to the west of the current airport ancillary area (site iii) – the latter incorporated within a revised boundary. In addition, the area will grow its employment focus through extending Aviation Way to accommodate demand from both aviation sectors and wider sectors.

Given the JAAP’s role in supporting both sources of employment, the new land allocated to accommodate employment would amount to around 21ha. principally for business park provision. The likely outcome would see a greater focus of aviationrelated business in the current Aviation Way employment area, with some areas potentially taken into the airport operational boundary to provide more area with direct runway access. Residential development will be used to improve the Brickworks' site and other areas of local amenity will be improved to maintain the overall environmental quality of the area for residents, businesses and visitors.

Figure 5.4 - Scenario 3 - High Growth

Figure 5.4

This map is reproduced from Ordnance Survey® material by Halcrow on behalf of Rochford District Council of Council Offices South Street Rochford SS4 1BW with the permission of the Controller of Her Majesty’s Stationery Office, ©Crown copyright. Unauthorised reproduction infringes Crown copyright and may lead to prosecution or civil proceedings. Licence Number: 1000018109, 2007.

key

This scenario will have the highest uptake of Green Belt land and a strategic revision of the designation to follow natural and man-made boundaries would be appropriate. It would also be drawn to allow for future allocations if deemed necessary. To compensate for this and potential environmental impacts, additional enhancement projects will need to be considered, including creation of buffer zones and mitigation areas to protect habitats.

Given the greater intensity of development and use in the JAAP a wider transport strategy would be needed for the area that included improvements to the strategic road network, new accesses and capacity, but also linkage with wider public transport initiatives (such as SERT). Important to the sustainability of the area will be encouraging modal shift and connecting new employment areas to public transport provision.

(10) 5.5.1 Details

The key features shaping this scenario, and what it means in practical terms is presented in more detail below.

Scenario 3 - High Growth
Issue 1: Future role of London Southend Airport
Airport model and infrastructure This scenario assumes the airport expansion is based on increasing the length of the runway up to 1,799 metres. Along with the other infrastructure improvements, this increases the realistic potential of the airport and its resultant attractiveness to airline operators. Currently the runway is an identified constraint on the operation of the airport. By lengthening the runway across Eastwoodbury Lane into the current RESA area it would mean that larger aircraft (such as Boeing 737s) would be able to be operated fully laden out of the airport for business and passenger uses, making the airport a more attractive fixed base for a wider range of potential operators. The airport is likely to grow faster to a capped passenger capacity of 2 million passengers per annum because given the new runway and railway station it would attract two or three fixed base operators to the airport in a relatively short period of time. Given the growth of the airport is dependent on its ability to attract operators (through offering an enhanced asset) the risks of this option are greatly reduced, the likelihood of reaching the passenger forecasts increased, which in turn improves the prospect of investment in the other assets of the railway station, passenger terminal, hotel and supporting facilities. The accelerated growth means that the sub-region will be in a position to support 2012 Olympics162.

Runway – extension of runway 24 to 1,799 metres and into the southern RESA to the south of Eastwoodbury Lane (leading to its closure). The benefit of this runway is that longer and more diverse fleets of aircraft can be accommodated. This applies to the passenger, business and MRO activities envisaged for the airport.

MRO – Increased aircraft movements and the location of fixed operators at the airport will create additional opportunities for MRO businesses. To accommodate these improvements will be made to the northern maintenance zone (through better development of existing plots) and the development of a new MRO area to the north in a current Green Belt area. The land take required for this will be approximately 4.05ha (10 acres).

New Terminal - Along the eastern boundary, the new terminal building would provide a handling capacity of about 0.65-0.7 mppa with the scope for future expansion to handle expected growth to two mppa (this has current planning approval). The approved terminal building will include a visitor centre. Extension of the terminal building would take in the sites currently occupied by the flying schools along the east boundary of the study area.

New Railway Station - The rail station will be developed along the eastern boundary. Approval from the Strategic Rail Authority would be required together with an access agreement with Network Rail and the train operator, One Great Eastern.

Hotel - Planning permission has been granted for a hotel adjacent to the current airport terminal. Based on passenger growth at the airport this development is more likely to take place.
Airport model and infrastructure Control Tower - relocation to northern maintenance zone together with reconfiguration of southern maintenance zone This would require northern surface access route for the airport

Boundary - Expanded to include small field adjoining the northern maintenance zone.
Direct airport employment Airport and MRO direct employment is expected to be 2,110 jobs comprising 910 air based and 1,200 MRO based jobs within the airport boundary . In terms of additionality, this represents an increase of 1,180 jobs directly associated with the functioning of the airport. Importantly, this scenario provide two important benefits over the previous scenario: (i) employment figures would be reached sooner because the airport will be attractive to a larger catchment (passenger and business) and (ii) the likelihood of achieving target aircraft and passenger forecasts is significantly enhanced because of improved attractiveness.
Aircraft and passenger forecasts The forecasts for passenger growth envisage up to 2 mppa, which converts into daily averages of around 1,500 arriving and 1,500 departing passengers on a typical day. The associated aircraft movements handled by the airport are up to 85,500 movements. Included within these figures are anticipated air transport movements of 32,000 per annum. Again, typical daily flows would include around 40 passenger flights, 2-3 MRO aircraft movements and 5-6 business flights. In total around 3 flights per hour. As noted above, these forecasts are more likely and will be achieved sooner than Scenario 2.
Issue 2: Future employment role
Employment Land The need for employment land in the JAAP will be driven by airport growth and wider demand for employment land. This concentration of demand will create a critical mass of demand and provision. In this scenario employment development would include: intensification of uses on Aviation Way; an additional 4.05ha (10 acres) extension to the airport boundary to support MREO growth; and the allocation of up to 21 ha of additional land on sites ii(a) and ii(d). In total this scenario would generate the capacity for up to 94,000 sq.m. of new B1 floorspace (mostly in the form of a new business park) that would accommodate up to 3,900 jobs.
Issue 3: Environmental and amenity enhancement
Green Belt Strategic revision of the Green Belt to provide a more coherent boundary that follows topographical features and clearly defines a strategic ‘green lung’ gap between development areas. The strategic gap would be defined by the Golf Club and Rayleigh Brook as far as Cherry Orchard Way. It would then follow the road south before proceeding west to include the Country Park. Essentially within the JAAP the Green Belt would be restricted to the top 25% of the area.
Environmental issues The airport drainage system would continue to discharge via interceptors into Eastwood Brook and Prittlewell Brook. The level of pollution incidences may increase due to expansion of activity but this may be mitigated by appropriate measures. Possibility of incorporating Eastwood Brook into future development together with appropriate mitigation measures in place.

Noise - growth in air traffic, increased employment, and the new railway station will all negatively impact upon noise levels in the JAAP area. The greatest impact will be an increase in aircraft noise and although the airport currently has no limits on its operation (it operates in line with conditions set out in the UK Aeronautical Package) controls may need to be put in place through negotiation with the operator and planning conditions on new infrastructure. Road traffic noise will increase with employment growth and to mitigate this modal shift will need to be encouraged. The increase in rail noise will be localised to the new station area and associated with stopping existing train numbers.
Environmental enhancements Environmental and amenity enhances proposed will include improvement of arable land south of Eastwoodbury Lane; recreation of local amenity space to the east of railway line; and extending the country park and amenity space in the habitat areas and ponds in the northern section of the JAAP.
Issue 4: Transport and movement improvements
Eastwoodbury Lane Eastwoodbury Lane closed to through traffic and a new permanent diversion provided. This could be through provision of a new route through the southern part of the RESA.
Improvements Infrastructure improvement in accordance with LTP2 but additional infrastructure investment will be required to cope with increased growth. Access to the new employment area would be via a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way. This would have two lanes in and out (similar to the existing roundabout at Cherry Orchard Way - Eastwoodbury Lane). Improved access into Aviation Way would be via the upgraded Aviation Way – Eastwoodbury Lane mini roundabout and a new roundabout off Cherry Orchard Way. Cherry Orchard Way would likely need to be upgraded to two lanes in each direction (similar to the existing stretch between the three-arm roundabout serving the industrial estate and Eastwoodbury Lane).

(4) 5.5.2 Scenario Assessment

Assessment of Strategic Fit
Objective
Creation of sustainable and high value employment and other land uses TickTickTick By fully embracing the employment role within the JAAP, this scenario has the greatest potential for creating sustainable and high value.
Maximising the economic benefits of a thriving airport and related activity TickTickTick The runway extension would remove the largest operational constraint on the airport and allow it to reach its full potential as a passenger and maintenance facilities.
Ensuring appropriate improvements in sustainable transport accessibility and facilities TickTickTick Significant improvements to transport network proposed including dualling the remainder of Cherry Orchard Way, replacement access for Eastwoodbury Lane, new railway station and northern access for the airport and Aviation Way.
Ensuring a high quality environment for residents TickTick A high quality of environment would be maintained, with enhancement to amenity areas and management of the green wedge between the airport and development to the north. Increased aircraft passengers and movements, coupled with increased employment will create negative impacts.
Maximum return on public investment through attracting inward investment TickTickTick Public investment in infrastructure to support growth would be maximised, as would the returns in terms of new high value employment opportunities.
Efficient use of existing employment land resources TickTickTick Efficient land use will occur throughout the JAAP. This will include maximising the potential opportunities within the airport boundary and the efficient use and allocation outside the airport.

Key Tick Low strategic fit TickTick Medium strategic fit TickTickTick High strategic fit

This final scenario has the strongest strategic fit with the objectives set for the JAAP in emerging policy documents. By taking a dual focus towards employment expansion in the area, the scale of development and opportunity is greatly enhanced and the JAAP becomes a central focus for employment growth within Southend and Rochford. Much of this is based on the clear role of the airport as an economic driver. Under this scenario this role becomes more realistic in commercial terms, resulting in increased likelihood and investment and development in both the area and surrounding area. It would become a focus for public and private sector investment in not only its facilities but also its environment and infrastructure. Key public sector support will be required to facilitate and manage the changing nature of the area, but return on this investment would be significant in that the JAAP would fully support and underpin the growth aspirations of this part of the Thames Gateway.

Advantages and disadvantages
Economic Environmental
Tick New and additional high value direct employment associated with the growth of the airport. Total direct employment up to 2,110 jobs, an additionality of 1,180 jobs over current levels. This benefit is also likely to occur earlier than under previous scenarios. Tick Strategic revision to Green Belt to provide a clearer focus and role in maintaining the environmental quality of the area
Tick Potential capacity for an additional 4,700 jobs in wider employment land allocations, based on business park provision and attracting a wider range of employment sectors. Tick Significant opportunities for environmental enhancement on existing open areas and habitat creation to mitigate losses. Facilitated through private and public sector contribution.
Tick Area produced significant support to the achievement of RSS targets for the subregion. Cross Potentially significant negative impact on landscape character and visual amenity resulting from the development of Brickworks' Site, agricultural land, airport sites and employment areas.
Tick A balanced approach to employment growth ensures greater economic sustainability. Cross Negative noise, vibration and air quality impacts associated with the increased aircraft movements and number of passengers using the airport.
Cross The dominance of the JAAP area in employment terms may have a negative impact on less viable employment areas. Cross An increasing amount of development reducing the overall amenity of the JAAP from current levels.

Key Tick Benefit Cross Disbenefit

In benefit and disbenefit terms, the weight of this scenario is towards providing strong economic and employment benefits in the most sustainable way. In total the scenario could produce up to 6,000 additional jobs if all development is delivered. Much of this growth is predicated on the airport expansion which is commercially realistic with the extended runway. Where this scenario also benefits is that a balanced approach to growth is proposed, ensuring that the area takes the best opportunities that are presented to it over the plan period. The potential disbenefit however is that because of such a strong employment focus in the JAAP, other employment areas may be prejudiced and not attract investment for renewal. This would need to be carefully considered by employment land policies within the two local authority areas to ensure a balanced portfolio is available.

On the environmental side, this scenario would clearly have the largest impact in terms of development and the resultant activity in the area. Impacts from traffic would be the largest of all scenarios and aircraft movements also maximised. These would need to be mitigated and controlled to ensure development is sustainable. However, the potential for mitigation and improvement to environmental assets are enhanced by the interest in the area from private and public sectors. In changing the character of the area funding would be attracted to promote transport and environmental projects aimed at improving the JAAP area.

(2) Questions

(466) Q5.1 Which is your preferred Scenario for the future of the Southend Airport area?

(47) Q5.2 How could your preferred scenario be further enhanced?

(51) Q5.3 Are there any other scenarios which you feel have not been considered?

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