Passenger growth to 2 mppa by 2030 is very uncertain in this scenario. While the provision of a new rail station, hotel and terminal might attract some new air services, the existing runway length will prevent airlines from fully utilising their aircraft (especially new efficient types) and make growth very fragile. As with Scenarios 1 and 2(a), as the number of aircraft and European airlines that can use such a short runway for commercial services declines, so too do the commercial opportunities for the airport. The risk of business failure for either airport based companies or even the airport increases commensurately and consideration would need to be given to the 1200 airport based jobs that depend on these companies.

The title 'Aviation Cluster' may be misleading as it implies a significant difference in aviation related activity compared with Scenario 2(a) whereas most of the additional employment would come from non aviation related activity. It would be better titled 'Medium growth â€" new business park'.

The Arup study mentioned at 5.2 above noted that the existing runway is at the margin of regional carriers' operations and that, as they are changing their fleets to more efficient aircraft types, longer runways are required for these aircraft to operate at their full range with an economic loading. This trend of aircraft fleet replacement is even more important as fuel costs rise.

The key to Figure 5.3 shows areas iii and x as 'Airport Boundary Extension'. Part of iii and all of x are already Airport leased areas and x is an existing RESA/ILS area.

Figure 5.3 shows a Park & Ride location but further information is needed on its purpose and method of operation.