Issue 2

Support

Representation ID: 9032

Received: 25/04/2009

Respondent: Dr Stephen Holmes

the area really needs more jobs

Object

Representation ID: 9134

Received: 27/04/2009

Respondent: Mrs Debra Emmerson

How many of these jobs will go to local people then?

Comment

Representation ID: 9239

Received: 08/04/2009

Respondent: CPREssex

4. ECONOMIC FACTORS

4.1 Demand Trends

Rising fuel costs, other charges and the current economic climate have depressed passenger demand. UK airports handled 1.9 per cent fewer passengers in 2008 compared with 2007. Traffic declined most in the final quarter of the year, with four million fewer passengers handled from October to December 2008 than in the same months of 2007

CAA statistics also showed that at the London airports - Heathrow, Gatwick, Stansted, Luton and London City - the fall was two per cent overall, with the largest decline in both absolute and percentage terms at Stansted (with a 1.4 million drop in passengers, representing a 6.0 per cent decline).

Stansted is arguably the best reference for Southend in terms of business model. Flight numbers there fell by 7% in 2008 - from 208,000 to 193,000.

Southampton Airport is, according to local by press reports, regarded as something of a 'role model' for Southend. Total flight numbers there have fallen for the past 3 years - from 58,000 in 2005 to 51,000 in 2008.

Unless there is an unexpectedly quick reverse in current economic conditions, these trends are unlikely to alter in the next few years. Indeed the Department for Transport (DfT), on 31 March 2009, released its revised long-term forecasts for Stansted. These show a forecast demand figure of 46.5m passengers per annum (mppa) in 2030. This is 25.5mppa lower than the forecast made only 5 months ago, in November 2007.

Economic analysts concerned with Stansted expect that the UK GDP forecasts, due in April 2009, will result in a further reduction to 43 mppa or lower.

This surely is not the time to be considering a major investment in developing Southend Airport.

Air Cargo
"Air freight felt its worst decline in September, since the technology bubble burst in 2001, with similar results or more decline expected over the coming months. International volumes were down 7.7% year-on year, with all regions except the Middle East and Africa reporting negative results, according IATA. Year on year air cargo grew just 0.1%."

Comment

Representation ID: 9241

Received: 08/04/2009

Respondent: CPREssex

4.3 Employment

In CPREssex' response to the IOR we expressed support for policies to safeguard and enhance the Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) business, its employment and skill base. We noted that MRO employment then outweighed aviation employment by a factor of about 7 (910 to 140). However, the skill sets would be totally different and (with some exceptions) the aviation jobs would be lower-skilled.

We note that the LSACL 2008 annual report showed direct airport employment at the airport to be 92 . The POR gives no figures for MRO employment.

The employment increases that the POR claims will ensue all relate to the business parks - existing -Aviation Way (AWBP) - and proposed new - Saxon Business Park (SBP) and at Nestuda Way (NWBP).

On page 11, first paragraph, of the IOR it says:

"In economic benefit terms it is considered that under this preferred option, the airport would act as a driver for the local economy, providing direct employment as well as enhanced opportunities for wider aviation related and business employment."
There is nothing in the POR to substantiate this claim. There is no evidence adduced to link the creation of any of these jobs to the expansion of aviation activity or the lengthening of the runway.

But in all cases the new businesses assumed to be attracted to the SBP and the NWBP and to the revamped AWBP would be expected to contribute to infrastructure works necessitated, it would appear, primarily by the expansion of the airport.

The unsupported claim that aviation expansion will in some way increase employment in unrelated areas is repeated throughout the POR.

We noted that the council's resume of responses to the IOR reported the following from EERA:

"EERA also state that nearly a third of business surveyed were deterred from locating in the area because of the proximity of the airport and that this will be a significant factor deterring B1 (Office/light industrial) uses that, as the supporting evidence highlights, will be the most likely source of employment growth".

As to direct employment at the airport - we have looked at work done on Stansted. Professor J. Whitelegg, in his work for the 2007 inquiry into BAA's application to increase passenger numbers at Stansted quoted work by Hart and McCann that showed that for each 1mppa increase in passenger numbers direct employment would grow by 309 FTEs and indirect by 37. This is over a 10-year period - i.e an average of about 35 per annum. Starting from a low base, as in the case of Southend Airport), a higher initial figure should be used as the growth curve is 'flattening', non-linear, one). A 'best guess figure would be about 500 per 1 mppa (direct + indirect, catalytic and induced). Again this is over a 10-year period to 2020 (under 1000 for 2mppa - by 2030) - an average of 50 new jobs per annum in say the first 10 years.

(Induced employment forecasts are assessed as unreliable by Prof Whitelegg.)

Clearly some increase in MRO employment is likely to derive from growth in aviation activity (especially if one or more fixed base operators are attracted to the airport), although growth might well be achieved without expansion of the airport's aviation operations. The absence, from the POR, of any forecast for MRO employment growth leaves us unable to comment further.

Object

Representation ID: 9375

Received: 29/04/2009

Respondent: Dr Laura Parry

I do not want the expansion of Southend airport going ahead to lead way for a huge number of night and day flights over the roof of my house (which is directly under the flight path. This will de-value my home and lead to negative equity all over the town - no matter whether there are the potential for new jobs in the area - this will not benefit the people who are struggling with negative equity.

Object

Representation ID: 9807

Received: 04/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Philip Jacob

Similar expansions in other areas have NOT yielded the job opportunities they promised.

Object

Representation ID: 9914

Received: 05/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Robert Archell

Does it make commercial sense? No because currently since Court Line (a charter airline of the 1970's) collapsed in 1976 it has not attracted consistent use by low cost air carriers like Easy Jet or Ryan Air and in the current economic climate its unlikely that these type of air carriers would consider running a service from a small regional airport like Southend in comparison to Stanstead or Gatwick. If there is such a need why aren't these companies already using Southend in its current limited capacity? They do not use it because they do not need its capacity.

Object

Representation ID: 9970

Received: 05/05/2009

Respondent: Mrs Amanda Whiteford

The details in the consultation document are vague and highly unlikely to be realised. No decent grounds are given to support the assertions of increased employment, which is currently assumed to correlate to size of units built.

Object

Representation ID: 9993

Received: 06/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Michael Sowerby

There is nothing in this vague section to confirm employment numbers they are just suggestions/projections based on a plan.

Employers can base their businesses wherever they wish and there is nothing in the plan for increased infrastructure e.g. roads, housing etc to support these businesses.

Object

Representation ID: 10095

Received: 06/05/2009

Respondent: mrs sarah brill

The aspiration of increased employment is pie in the sky and dependant on the routes and passenger levels increasing. Plans to travel to Spain is of value to only a few. Recovery from the current recession will take years and people will be very selective where and if able to take holidays abroad. Southend will find it difficult to compete with cheap airports such as nearby stansted.

Object

Representation ID: 10194

Received: 07/05/2009

Respondent: MRS JANINE GIBBS

I OBJECT STRONGLY TO THE PROPOSAL

Object

Representation ID: 10399

Received: 07/05/2009

Respondent: miss anita durrant

I object to further development due to increase in traffic noise and pollution all that will affect the environment that we live in

Support

Representation ID: 10551

Received: 11/05/2009

Respondent: Renaissance Southend

The Southend Regeneration Framework identified Southend Town Centre and the Airport as the two key locations for employment growth. The level of employment growth needed goes beyond the direct job creation from expanding the operational side of the Airport. It will require not just land to support the consolidation and expansion of the Maintenance Repair & Overhaul but also the allocation of additional land to meet the job targets and to create a high quality business park offer that helps retain and attract investment and business. Such an offer is currently not available within the urban area of Southend

Object

Representation ID: 10635

Received: 08/05/2009

Respondent: jason aiken

The area is residential and extending the airport takes no account of this. Noise pollution will be horrendous and turn a peaceful part of the southeast into an industrial flight path. The area is well served by a purpose built international airport. Commerce and the income of private individuals is taking precedence over the welfare of the residents of the borough Environmental concerns re expansion plans. The road congestion will be severe - infrastructure of the area is unable to support the expansion. The council is lining the pockets of business at the cost of the welfare of its residents

Object

Representation ID: 10724

Received: 08/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Mark Benton

Following the consultation meeting on May 6, I do not believe that increasing the runway will have a significant bearing on the number of jobs created. I also dispute the statement that "...these will deliver 6200 additional jobs..." i have seen no facts to support this assertion & believe it to be nothing more than speculation

Object

Representation ID: 10813

Received: 09/05/2009

Respondent: Leigh Town Council

High scale employment is not appropriate, given the existing & preferred infrastructure.
The airport should not be a driver for the local economy. Employment levels should be limited to Maintenance Repair and Overhaul.
We support only low scale employment growth, up to 15,000 sq.met of B1 floorspace and 620 new jobs

Comment

Representation ID: 10906

Received: 12/05/2009

Respondent: Ms Sharon Allsop

The JAAP does not clearly state how the business parks/jobs are dependent on the Airport development. Could the business parks be built without Airport development?
Also, what is the local impact on these developments? How will the local infrastructure cope? If these jobs are to be filled by local employees, how will the council ensure this happens at the outset and continues in the future? Indeed, is that legal?
If the employees are not local, how will the area cope with the additional strain on the infrastructure or with an influx of new residents? Would there be a need for additional housing?

Object

Representation ID: 10940

Received: 10/05/2009

Respondent: Mrs Lindsey Burgess

We do not need another business park.

Object

Representation ID: 11270

Received: 11/05/2009

Respondent: Miss J I Butler

It is stated that "the preferred option is to pursue high scale employment growth". A major part of the plan seems to be job creation. Most of the office blocks in Victoria Avenue are empty and redundant, having been built in the 1960's, why are these not adapted and converted as modern offices/business units, since public transport is good in that area and they are close to the town centre. Victoria Avenue should be regenerated before development of more Green Belt land is allowed. A total of 6,200 additional jobs will be created. What kind of buildings will be allowed. More high rise blocks? The Green Belt should not be spoilt and developed if there is vacant capacity elswhere. e.g in Victoria Avenue.

Object

Representation ID: 11282

Received: 14/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Brian Whistler

Why build more when there are plenty of under utilised Industrial Areas and Offices in south east Essex. Would agree necessary if MRO is expanded but the new employees for the airport itself (high growth option) are likely to come from outside the area at the expense of many thousands of local residents who will be adversely affected by the high growth expansion.

Object

Representation ID: 11347

Received: 11/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Tom Archard

This is ridiculous. There are more desirable ways to create employment. Any benefits from job creation are outweighed by negative environmental impact of an airport that will be designed to accommodate many more passengers and flights. Proposed expansion of airport will only serve to add to the congestion on the roads.

Object

Representation ID: 11477

Received: 06/05/2009

Respondent: Mr and Mrs Sales

We are making an objection to all options as it is a badly thought out scheme, the only reason seems to be money driven by two persons Eddie Stobart and the manager at Southend Airport, reasons given below, and of course the revenue that Rochford and Southend council will receive.

Object

Representation ID: 11634

Received: 12/05/2009

Respondent: South East Essex Green Party

I object to the airport expansion (it exacerbates climate change).

Object

Representation ID: 11635

Received: 12/05/2009

Respondent: South East Essex Green Party

I object to the airport expansion (it exacerbates climate change).

Object

Representation ID: 11735

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: Christine McLeod

A new employment area effectively means an older area left derelict. The new automotive retail park on Cherry Orchard Way has resulted in empty sites at Priory Crescent (SMACS), Milton Street (Geoff Bray), London Road (Chalkwell Park Motors), West Road (Toomeys). There are already empty units in Industrial Estates such as Progress Road, Temple Farm, Stock Road etc. These should be utilised before another new area of green land is swallowed up.

Object

Representation ID: 11749

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: Mr B J Free

Only the jobs of around 400 of those currently employed on Southend Airport are dependent on flying activities. The principle employer employing approximately 800 manufacture passenger aircraft seats. Materials arrive by road the finished product leaves by road. 400 jobs are not a significant contributiion to local employment, especially as a large proportion are not local but contractors working on short-term contracts. About the same number of local people are employed on the Progress Road estate, which takes up a fraction of the space of the airport. The current forecasts for passenger numbers and jobs to be created are just the latest in a string of such Pollyanna predictions that have been made over the last 50 years, all of which have failed to materialise even in an era of cheap oil. An extra 50% more energy will be required in 20 years time to grow and transport the food necessary to feed a world populatioin that will have grown to 9 billion, against a background of diminishing oil supply. The choice will be between flying and eating, and 20 years may well be an optimistic forecast. Holiday resorts on the Mediterranean can and should be reached by rail not air. Global warming is a reality and air travel a major contributor. The councils should be promoting local holiday attractions not the means of moving holidaymakers to spend their time and money elsewhere. The whole area is steeped in history the Saxon King, the Boleyns and the Mayflower to name but a few, and yet no attempt is made to exploit their tourist potential. In fact by almost destroying St Laurence Church they undermine the small but steady stream of American tourists that visit it every year. Americans it would appear know more about our local history than our councils. In a densely populated area where land is at a premium to waste so much of it on a useless white elephant of an airport is criminal. Even if oil supplies and global warming permitted the continuation of mass air travel which is extemely doubtful, Stansted airport which plans to double its passenger numbers is barely an hour away. The land should be better employed for the benefit of the local population. A full size swimming pool not the oversized paddling pool currently being constructed with customary penny wise pound-foolish policy by Southend Council at Fossetts could be built there. An athletics centre with proper running traks, an equestrian centre, a vehicle driving training centre to get learners ot of our side-streets, a golf driging range in association with the golf course the list goes on. All these things would improve the quality of life for the citizens that our councillors are elected to protect not degrade with noise, air pollution and runaway climate change.

Object

Representation ID: 11788

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: mrs jackie marriott

I do not agree that the small number of jobs being dangled as a carrot is an acceptable price to pay for the loss of our quality of life in this area.
We do not need another business park either, as many are still half empty!You only have to look at Cherry Orchard Way and the derelict old RSB building to see that.

Support

Representation ID: 11799

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: Mrs Hilary Davison

It's got to be good for Southend as far as jobs are concerned as long as it does not just take from other industrial areas

Object

Representation ID: 11873

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: Austins

I think it highly unlikely that many locals will have the experience and qualifications to do many of the top level jobs created and the majority of staff will be of a more menial nature.

Have the council sufficient housing to accomodate all these new workers and, if not, where and when in this current economic climate are they going to be built

Object

Representation ID: 11970

Received: 13/05/2009

Respondent: Mr Barry Simpson

Additional office and commercial premises are not needed! Southend Council - wake up and look out of the windows at Civic Centre and see the empty offices in Victoria Avenue!