Object
London Southend Airport and Environs Joint Area Action Plan Submission Document
Representation ID: 32673
Received: 25/04/2013
Respondent: Mr B J Free
Legally compliant? No
Sound? No
Duty to co-operate? Not specified
Both councils claim that by encouraging the development of an airport that what they are pursuing is a sustainable policy. Also that this policy will provide long term economic benefits for the area. This could not be further from the truth.
Firstly flying operations at airports do not make money anywhere. Landing and takeoff fees are kept uneconomically low as too many airports compete for limited passenger numbers. The few airports that do not make a loss do so by auxiliary activities, shops selling duty free goods etc. The Manchester Airport Group recent purchasers of Stansted Airport are proposing a significant increase in the size of retail facilities at the airport for this reason. I have been reliably informed that easyJet has a three year agreement to fly free of charge from Southend and a Stobart shareholder blog appears to confirm this. Paul Kehoe CEO of Birmingham Airport in a recent article in the Times reached the considered conclusion the UK had twice as many airports as it could sustain and half of them should close. With a limited customer base and facing competition from successful surrounding airports London Southend Airport is very unlikely to be among the 50% that remain open. The current government view is that no new runway will be required until 2030. It is not a case of if the Airport closes but when. In the words of a dissatisfied Stobart shareholder RIP regional airports.
Secondly the governments forecasts for growth in passenger numbers flying are constantly being reduced as reality overtakes fantasy. The figure of 500 million passengers a year in 2030 forecast in the 2003 White Paper has been reduced to 343 million in 2013 forecast. This latest forecast is also unrealistically based on national economic growth of 2% per annum and jet fuel remaining at present prices. Subsidies from central government in the form of tax relief (no fuel duty, no VAT on fuel, tickets or services) and from local government at the expense of Council tax payers had kept the price of flying artificially low. This caused a boom in flying which reached its peak in 2007 and has declined steadily every year until 2011 losing 19 million passenger in that time. There was a small lift in the Olympic year of 2012 but the decline is expected to continue. People may be getting bored with flying; Ryanair failed to give away 230,000 free flights out of 1,1 million offered in 2012 and blamed passenger inertia. The airline industry is even now pressing for the removal of Air Passenger Duty in an attempt to stimulate demand. The preferential treatment of aviation will not be allowed to continue. Brendon Sewill Cambridge economics graduate and government advisor estimates the aviation has a taxpayer subsidy of £9.2 billion per year even after the Duty of £0.9 billion has been deducted. In February 2013 AirportWatch said that the aviation tourism deficit for 2012 was £11.2 billion. Though this has been falling since the financial collapse of 2008 it still equivalent to a loss of around 500,000 UK jobs. If adjusted for fair taxation the SPASM computer program reduces predicted passenger numbers to 315 million a year by 2030.
Thirdly business travel is unlikely to ever form more than a tiny part of the passenger profile at Southend; most are seasonal holidaymakers. Only 1 in 10 top executives cited air accessibility as a reason to choose a location for business. A KPMG survey of 801 top executives of foreign owned companies gave the reason for locating to the UK quality of life. Major Japanese companies have located in the Northeast of the UK where there is no direct air link to Japan. Claims that the Airport will encourage business investment have no factual basis. Major UK businesses such as Lloyds TSB, B Sky B and Marks and Spencer have reduced their business flights by 41% in the last two years. Cutting flights and using electronic methods of communication increased efficiency with less time spent out of the office.
Finally the growth in air travel is now in the Asia Pacific region not in Europe where it is static or declining. If in doubt look at where the orders for new airliners are being placed. The first all economy 800 seat Airbus A380 enters service next year; this could be well be the future of economy flying. The prospects for UK regional airports are dire; few are likely to survive an impending cull. The council's thinking is hopelessly out of date based on flawed evidence and as such unbalanced and therefore unlawful.
Both councils claim that by encouraging the development of an airport that what they are pursuing is a sustainable policy. Also that this policy will provide long term economic benefits for the area. This could not be further from the truth.
Firstly flying operations at airports do not make money anywhere. Landing and takeoff fees are kept uneconomically low as too many airports compete for limited passenger numbers. The few airports that do not make a loss do so by auxiliary activities, shops selling duty free goods etc. The Manchester Airport Group recent purchasers of Stansted Airport are proposing a significant increase in the size of retail facilities at the airport for this reason. I have been reliably informed that easyJet has a three year agreement to fly free of charge from Southend and a Stobart shareholder blog appears to confirm this. Paul Kehoe CEO of Birmingham Airport in a recent article in the Times reached the considered conclusion the UK had twice as many airports as it could sustain and half of them should close. With a limited customer base and facing competition from successful surrounding airports London Southend Airport is very unlikely to be among the 50% that remain open. The current government view is that no new runway will be required until 2030. It is not a case of if the Airport closes but when. In the words of a dissatisfied Stobart shareholder RIP regional airports.
Secondly the governments forecasts for growth in passenger numbers flying are constantly being reduced as reality overtakes fantasy. The figure of 500 million passengers a year in 2030 forecast in the 2003 White Paper has been reduced to 343 million in 2013 forecast. This latest forecast is also unrealistically based on national economic growth of 2% per annum and jet fuel remaining at present prices. Subsidies from central government in the form of tax relief (no fuel duty, no VAT on fuel, tickets or services) and from local government at the expense of Council tax payers had kept the price of flying artificially low. This caused a boom in flying which reached its peak in 2007 and has declined steadily every year until 2011 losing 19 million passenger in that time. There was a small lift in the Olympic year of 2012 but the decline is expected to continue. People may be getting bored with flying; Ryanair failed to give away 230,000 free flights out of 1,1 million offered in 2012 and blamed passenger inertia. The airline industry is even now pressing for the removal of Air Passenger Duty in an attempt to stimulate demand. The preferential treatment of aviation will not be allowed to continue. Brendon Sewill Cambridge economics graduate and government advisor estimates the aviation has a taxpayer subsidy of £9.2 billion per year even after the Duty of £0.9 billion has been deducted. In February 2013 AirportWatch said that the aviation tourism deficit for 2012 was £11.2 billion. Though this has been falling since the financial collapse of 2008 it still equivalent to a loss of around 500,000 UK jobs. If adjusted for fair taxation the SPASM computer program reduces predicted passenger numbers to 315 million a year by 2030.
Thirdly business travel is unlikely to ever form more than a tiny part of the passenger profile at Southend; most are seasonal holidaymakers. Only 1 in 10 top executives cited air accessibility as a reason to choose a location for business. A KPMG survey of 801 top executives of foreign owned companies gave the reason for locating to the UK quality of life. Major Japanese companies have located in the Northeast of the UK where there is no direct air link to Japan. Claims that the Airport will encourage business investment have no factual basis. Major UK businesses such as Lloyds TSB, B Sky B and Marks and Spencer have reduced their business flights by 41% in the last two years. Cutting flights and using electronic methods of communication increased efficiency with less time spent out of the office.
Finally the growth in air travel is now in the Asia Pacific region not in Europe where it is static or declining. If in doubt look at where the orders for new airliners are being placed. The first all economy 800 seat Airbus A380 enters service next year; this could be well be the future of economy flying. The prospects for UK regional airports are dire; few are likely to survive an impending cull. The council's thinking is hopelessly out of date based on flawed evidence and as such unbalanced and therefore unlawful.